The evolving cycle

The end of an era. With the U.S. economy growing an average of 2.2% annualized since it came out of recession in June 2009 and monthly job gains averaging 220,000 over the previous 12 months, the Federal Reserve raises its interest-rate target range to 0.25%-0.50% from 0%-0.25%. A year later, it raises the target range again to 0.50%-0.75%.

Dec 16, 2015
Rate Target
Fixed rate, 30-year mortgage%
S&P 500
WSJ Dollar Index

The previous tightening

In its most recent completed tightening cycle, which began June 30, 2004, and lasted roughly two-and-a-half years, the Fed raised rates 17 times to put the brakes on surging housing prices.

May 29, 2004
Rate Target
Fixed rate, 30-year mortgage%
S&P 500
WSJ Dollar Index

An uneven easing

In the Fed's most recent ‘easing’ cycle, the central bank lowered rates to near zero, in an attempt to boost lending.

Sep 17, 2007
Rate Target
Fixed rate, 30-year mortgage%
S&P 500
WSJ Dollar Index

Zero-interest-rate period

Rock-bottom rates weren't enough to prop up the economy, which by 2008 had stumbled into a recession and was bleeding jobs. In this ‘zero-interest-rate period’, the Fed resorted to series of bond-buying stimulus programs aimed at restoring lending between banks and to corporations and households, and stimulating economic growth.

Dec 16, 2008
Rate Target
Fixed rate, 30-year mortgage%
S&P 500
WSJ Dollar Index